This blog is run by Jason Jon Benedict and Doug Beare to share insights and developments on open source software that can be used to analyze patterns and trends in in all types of data from the natural world. Jason currently works as a geospatial professional based in Malaysia. Doug lives in the United Kingdom and is currently Director of Globefish Consultancy Services which provides scientific advice to organisations that currently include the STECF [Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries, https://stecf.jrc.europe.eu/] and ICCAT, https://www.iccat.int/en/

Tuesday, 16 December 2014

13 decades on...has Penang gotten warmer?

  • Here we compare recent temperature data for Penang with a report written in 1885.
  • We find that air temperatures are higher now in the afternoon and evening
  • Morning air temperatures seem to be about the same now as they were 130 years ago.
  • There are sources of bias which may affect the interpretation, but about which we can do nothing.

Last week we received the email below from Mike Gibby (mikegibby@gmail.com).

“Hi Jason, Doug

I found your website / blog on Temperature Change in Penang while searching for info on rain, and more especially on rain gauges in Penang, and wondered if you could give any advice or help?

I'm part of a team who are researching for a guide to hiking trails in Penang; most of these trails were developed by farmers for access, but there are some trails that only 'stitch together' the sites of rain gauges, so they must have been created for data collection in the old, pre-digital days. An example here would be what is described as 'the longest trail in Penang', that runs from Telok Bahang to Penang Hill, via Bukit Laksamana.

So, my question is, can you point me at any sources of information, quite probably of the colonial era, on the setting up, siting etc of rain gauges?
In case you don't know it, I attach an article on the climate in Penang in 1885.

I look forward to hearing from you- best wishes !

Mike Gibby”

We replied to Mike that we didn’t know anything about the rain gauges or the old-colonial data collection protocols or policies.

We were, however, very interested in the 1885 weather report that Mike attached. We’ve since discovered that the report is available from the Malaysian Branch of the Royal Asiatic Society.  The 1885 report was compiled by Mr Thomas Irvine Rowell (Principal Civil Medical Officer) in Singapore in early 1886, about the same time Karl Benz patented the first gasoline-driven automobile and covers Singapore, Penang, ‘Province Wellesley’ and Malacca. 

Given our interest in Penang’s current and past weather, we decided to compare recent air temperature measurements with those taken 130 years previously in 1885 (please see below).



In the figure below we’ve plotted annual patters for six different Temperature parameters (mean monthly, maximum monthly, minimum monthly, 9am, 3pm, & 9pm) for both 1885 (blue lines) and the period 2003-2013 (red lines).  Monthly mean temperatures are around 28°C. March and April Penang average temperatures appeared to be a little hotter in 1885 than we’ve seen more recently, but for the rest of the year air Temperatures were fairly similar.  Recent maximum air temperatures are higher than they were in 1885 and minimum temperatures lower. We think, however, that this is probably caused by confounding/bias, ie. in 1885 data were only collected 3 times daily (9am, 3pm, & 9pm) whereas nowadays we can make observations, continuously, at 5 minute intervals and publish them instantly around the world! 



Given such problems of bias, the most meaningful comparisons we can make between these datasets are those observations taken at 9am, 3pm, and 9pm.  At 9am, temperatures in 1885 were similar to current measurements.  In the afternoon (3pm, typically around the hottest time of day in Penang) and evening (9pm), however, Temperatures are higher now in all months by about 1°C

So, in conclusion, if we assume that the measuring equipment is accurate, current air temperatures are around 1°C warmer in Penang in the afternoons and evenings, while Mr Rowell would probably have experienced very similar morning temperatures to us now!

These differences are less pronounced than we’d expected.

[Note: We’ve not addressed the potentially serious issue of ‘spatial bias’ and the locations that weather observations were made by us are not the same as those used by Mr Rowell].

The R code we used to produce the above line plots is outlined below and the 2003-2013 temperatures were downloaded from the NOAA NCDC's Global Summary of the Day (GSOD).

# Load required libraries
 
library(zoo)
library(lubridate)
library(plyr)
library(ggplot2)
library(grid)
library(XLConnect)
library(reshape2)
library(extrafont)
 
# Set working directory
 
setwd("D:/ClimData")
 
# Read table of 1885 Temperatures
 
temp1885<-readWorksheet(loadWorkbook("1885_Temps.xlsx"),sheet=1)
 
temps1885 <- temp1885[c(1,2,10,11,12,13,14,15)]
 
colnames(temps1885) <- c("month","monthf","temp_9am","temp_3pm","temp_9pm","mon_mean","mon_max","mon_min")
 
temps1885$year <- "1885"
 
temps1885_df <- temps1885[c(1,2,9,3:8)]
 
 
# Read data from NCDC
 
dat<-read.table("2110827004508dat.txt",header=TRUE,fill=TRUE,na.strings=c("*","**","***","****","*****","******","0.00T*****"))
 
colnames(dat)<-tolower(colnames(dat))
 
# Convert hourly data from UTC to local time zone
 
Sys.setenv(TZ = "UTC")
dat$dates <- as.POSIXct(strptime(dat$yr..modahrmn,format="%Y%m%d%H%M"))  + 8 * 60 * 60
 
# Convert temperatures in Degree Fahrenheit to Degree Celcius
 
dat$tempc <- (dat$temp-32) * (5/9)
 
dat$tempc[dat$tempc<=10] <- NA
dat$tempc[dat$tempc>=40] <- NA 
 
# Extract times and dates and reformat data
 
dat$year <- as.numeric(as.POSIXlt(dat$dates)$year+1900)
dat$month <- as.numeric(as.POSIXlt(dat$dates)$mon+1)
dat$monthf <- factor(dat$month,levels=as.character(1:12),labels=c("Jan","Feb","Mar","Apr","May","Jun","Jul","Aug","Sep","Oct","Nov","Dec"),ordered=TRUE)
dat$jday <- yday(dat$dates)
dat$hour <- as.numeric(format(strptime(dat$dates, format = "%Y-%m-%d %H:%M"),format = "%H"))
dat$minute <- as.numeric(format(strptime(dat$dates, format = "%Y-%m-%d %H:%M"),format = "%M"))
 
dat_01 <- subset(dat, year >= 2003 & year <= 2013 )
 
dat_02 <- dat_01[c(34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41)]
 
dat_9am <- subset(dat_02,hour == 9 & minute == 0 )
dat_3pm <- subset(dat_02,hour == 15 & minute == 0 )
dat_9pm <- subset(dat_02,hour == 21 & minute == 0 )
 
dat_9am_melt<- ddply(dat_9am, .(month,monthf), summarize, temp_9am=mean(tempc,na.rm=T))
dat_3pm_melt<- ddply(dat_3pm, .(month,monthf), summarize, temp_3pm=mean(tempc,na.rm=T))
dat_9pm_melt<- ddply(dat_9pm, .(month,monthf), summarize, temp_9pm=mean(tempc,na.rm=T))
 
dat_hourly <- cbind(dat_9am_melt,dat_3pm_melt[3],dat_9pm_melt[3])
 
dat_melt<- ddply(dat_01, .(month,monthf), summarize, mon_mean=mean(tempc,na.rm=T),mon_max=max(tempc,na.rm=T),mon_min=min(tempc,na.rm=T))
 
dat_yrs <- cbind(dat_melt,dat_hourly[-c(1,2)]) 
 
dat_yrs$year <- "10 Year Average (2003-2013)"
 
tempcomb <- rbind(dat_yrs,temps1885_df)
 
tempcomb_df <- melt(tempcomb, id.vars=c("month","monthf","year"),variable.name="type",value.name="temps")
 
# Plot data
 
p <- ggplot(data=tempcomb_df, aes(x=monthf,temps, colour=year))+
     geom_point(data=subset(tempcomb_df,year!=1885),size=3, alpha=0.5,aes(group=year))+ 
     geom_line(data=subset(tempcomb_df,year!=1885),size=1, alpha=0.5,aes(group=year))+
     geom_point(data=subset(tempcomb_df,year==1885),size=3, alpha=0.5,aes(group=year))+ 
     geom_line(data=subset(tempcomb_df,year==1885),size=1, alpha=0.5,aes(group=year))+
     geom_text(aes(label=round(temps,1)),hjust=1, vjust=-1,size=2.5)+
     facet_wrap(~type)+
     xlab("")+ ylab ("Temperature (Degree C)\n") +
     labs(title="Comparison of year 1885 and 10 year monthly average (2003-2013) temperatures in Penang\n")+
     theme(panel.background = element_rect(fill= "transparent"),
     plot.title = element_text(lineheight=1.2, face="bold",size = 13, colour = "grey20",family="Clear Sans"),
     panel.border = element_rect(colour = "grey90",fill=F,size=0.5),
     panel.grid.major.x = element_blank(),panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
     axis.line=element_blank(),axis.title.x=element_blank(),
     axis.text.x=element_text(face="bold",size = 10, colour = "grey20",family="Clear Sans"),
     axis.title.y=element_text(face="bold",size = 10, colour = "grey20",family="Clear Sans"),
     axis.text.y=element_text(face="bold",size = 8, colour = "grey20",family="Clear Sans"),
     legend.title = element_text(colour="black", size=12, face="bold",family="Clear Sans"),
     legend.text = element_text(colour="black", size=10, family="Clear Sans"),
     legend.position="bottom",
     axis.ticks=element_line(size=0.5,colour="grey20"),panel.grid.major.y = element_line(colour="grey90",linetype="longdash",size=1))+
     guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Year", title.position = "top"))
 
p
 
 
# Save plot to png
 
ggsave(p,file="PenangTemps_1885_10yrAverage.png",dpi=500,w=12,h=8,unit="in",type="cairo-png")
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